cross-posted from: https://linux.community/post/512445
my bet is: as long as we need to completely transition to renewable transport, because everything we eat, build and wear needs to be transported and most of us don’t work from home or study from home:
oil prices are high because that’s what putin can use as leverage against the developed world after his failed annexation of Ukraine and it’s clear he’d rather die than accept Ukraine is an independent country. Global warming makes a transition to renewable energy inescapable and even if putin died today and Russia opened the taps again, it would only slow down the transition.
But holy shit, it’s gonna be hard and expensive, it’s going to take decades and every populist politician of both left and right is going to fight it. My bet is 2 decades.
What do you think?
Actually, the (quasi) negative inflation era we had in the 10’s was the exception. Economist believe there is a sweet spot around 3%.
And for an average person with more debt than money inflation isn’t that bad. Think about the people who got a mortgage in 2019-2020 where 1.5% was a crazy high interers rate. Who have now a rate 3-4 times better than inflation.
The big issues is that many countries stop indexing the wages with inflation which is a gigantic hold up for the rich (especially when rent are tied to inflation but not salaries)