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Cake day: June 16th, 2023

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  • Beef only refers to cow and pork only refers to pig, but poultry encompasses many species of fowl, and I think that the need for distinction is what led to people generally referring to poultry by the species. If you tell someone you’re having poultry for dinner the follow-up is usually ‘what kind?’, and if beef referred to the meat of any large domestic quadriped mammal and bison were more popular, we’d probably refer to it as ‘cow’, that kind of thing.


  • If you’re planning on replacing that painted over lock the easiest way to go about is grab a 1/16" drill bit, put a key up to it, note the orientation of the ridged part of the key, that side has the pins. Stick drill straight in, drill through the pins. Take 3/32" drill bit, aim right where you were previously aiming, drill that out. Scrape what you can out of there with a seal pick, might pull out a few springs etc, but once the pins are drilled out you can turn it with a screwdriver. Key lines up the pins so it can turn freely, but without pins it’ll turn freely, that kind of thing


  • I don’t know of anything academic but the first thing worth reading about is the Discounted Cash Flow model. It’s a valuation model that takes into account the time value of money (in a hypothetical 0% inflationary environment a dollar today is worth just as much as a dollar 10 years from now, and in a hypothetical incredibly inflationary environment a dollar today can buy far far more stuff than a dollar will in 10 years).

    That right there has a lot to do with the ebb and flow of growth stocks vs value stocks in regard to inflation. When there’s no inflation a company with poor earnings but very high revenue growth looks very appealing because the revenue growth outpaces the diminished value of future dollars, but in an inflationary environment, that kind of company becomes a huge gamble, because they might never be profitable and their revenue growth is getting whittled down by inflation.


  • Interest rates and inflation is probably a significant source of panic for high growth tech companies with poor earnings.

    When interest rates are low, there isn’t a lot of worry about future dollars being eroded by inflation, and investors tend to pay a premium for growth and future earnings. Money is easy to borrow in that kind of environment, so a company that has lots of growth, increasing daily active users, poor earnings, but the hope of finding ways to increase earnings, that kind of company will see their valuation skyrocket and they can use that valuation to secure funding.

    When it flips around and interest rates are high, inflation is high, future earnings get eroded by inflation (a dollar in 2021 was stronger than a dollar in 2023), suddenly a company that has shit earnings and huge growth is a lot less desirable compared to a company that has consistent earnings and dividends. That growth stock with shit earnings used to rely on their valuation to generate funding to power that growth, suddenly that entire siphon gets broken, their valuation falls from the sky into reasonable territory, money is hard to borrow, and they’re stuck trying to stay afloat mostly with their shitty earnings.

    After the great recession, tech was a very dirty word. We’re talking years after the great recession, 2012-2014 even. People didn’t want to invest in companies that didn’t make any money. 2020-2021, pandemic, lockdowns, historically low interest rates, all that, money was so easy to borrow and growth was so huge from people being stuck indoors that a lot of tech companies with shitty earnings had such insane growth metrics like daily active users that these companies went to the moon. Twilio, TWLO for example, quadrupled from pre-pandemic highs. 2022-2023, inflation becomes a very real thing and things are opening up again, all those metrics drop to normal levels, money is harder to borrow, future dollars getting eroded, growth tech gets crushed, TWLO is suddenly trading at levels lower than pre-pandemic (lost 80% of its value from pandemic highs).

    We’re seeing a lot of ‘internet’ type tech companies go from boom to bust, and now they need to do whatever they can to drum up money the good old fashioned way - from generating income as opposed to securing funding through growth (debt).

    Not only stuff like Twitter and Reddit, but Netflix cracking down on account sharing. A couple years back Netflix viewed account sharing less as a loss of revenue and more as an ‘unauthorized permanent trial’, hopefully some bandits eventually get their own account for the sake of convenience… But nowadays Netflix needs to think shorter-term and behave a bit more self-sufficiently, so they’re starting to take a more direct approach to compel people to obtain subscriptions.

    Something like gfycat, when money is easy to borrow and inflation is low, investors will line up to pile in even if there is practically no revenue, because eventually they might monetize it and become wildly profitable… But in this environment nobody wants to touch something like that, so a zero revenue entity either scrambles for profitability or they simply dry out