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Cake day: July 13th, 2023

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  • Not the least of which being that if they nuke it, they don’t get it. At least not in the way they want it.

    But honestly, way theory aside, massive open warfare against Taiwan would be horrific for Taiwan, but outside of the region, it would really doom China as it exists.

    Even if they did manage to take the island, likely with just an overwhelming wave of soldiers, at that point, the entire world, aside from a few exceptions (NK, Iran, Syria, Russia, Belarus, and maybe some African nations) are going to effectively strangle the Chinese economy with sanctions if not an outright embargo.

    It might not change things overnight, but hitting China square in the economy is far more effective than it is for Russia, because China is so much more of a player in the world economy. They depend on the world buying their goods. As long as the rest of the world can keep unfulfilled consumer demand from triggering crippling sustained double digit inflation for years on end, there may not even be a need for large scale, near-peer open warfare.




  • Super weird correlation, I admit, but in my city it’s been my experience that one odd trend I’ve observed has been that Tesla drivers do three things disproportionately more frequently than drivers of other vehicles:

    Lack of using a turn signal (which they arguably share with BMW drivers.

    Forcing their way into lane changes and/or cutting people off (often accompanied by a noted lack of signal).

    And flat out just plain running red lights. This last one is the most alarming and honestly the one I’ve noticed to be most closely linked to Tesla drivers. It’s so bad that even if I have a solid green when approaching a red light, if I can see a Tesla in approaching or crossing lanes, I’ll let off the gas and hover over the brakes, just in case they “pull a Tesla”. I’ve seen many of them pull up to a solid red, drift to a stop, then find a gap in the cross traffic that has a solid green and just dart across. I’ve seen them turn left on red without stopping. Seen them cause near accidents, all running red lights like they’re just a suggestion.







  • I’ve got one engineer, only one in the two teams of like ten each that I work with, who doesn’t understand the concept of sending out a short email or IM to ask, “Hey, I’d like to give you a call about XYZ. When would be a good time for you?”

    I mean, email is by far the best. It doesn’t demand real time attention and ALSO gives a body of text and attachments to refer back to whenever.

    IM also offers these but not as easily organized and searchable.

    Phone is worst: there’s no lasting record, no attachments, and you have to drop what you’re doing to participate.

    Most of my team realizes these things and prefers email. There are a few who still rely on calls but they at least set up a time for calls.

    Only this one guy (a young guy too) thinks it’s perfectly acceptable to call without any announcement or warning, then take up 30-90 minutes of your time with a call to convey information that could have been in a short email or taken care of in literally 5-10 minutes.

    He always wants to chat about random shit before getting to the point, then give you a bunch of extra info you don’t even need.

    Thus, I’ve started just ignoring his calls when it’s not a good time for me.

    If he feels it’s okay to just randomly interrupt, I feel I’m just as justified in refusing to allow said interruption.






  • While I’m not saying it’s categorically impossible, and I agree that there are some parallels that could be drawn with South Africa, realistically there are several big and very relevant differences which unfortunately seem (to me) to make your theoretical scenario impractical and unlikely at best.

    Very broadly speaking, the differing religions would be a massive, nearly insurmountable challenge on its own, but even if they could get past it, it would always be there, making any effort at resolving any issue orders of magnitude more difficult than it might otherwise be.

    The immediate road block of course is also that each side wants as its main goal mutually exclusive things…and since they’re overwhelmingly likely to view all decisions through the lens of achieving those goals, there will never be consensus even on the most basic things.

    And this has little to do with the US. This is a situation where, if it is to be resolved, I feel it would be best handled with as little direct US involvement as possible, instead channeling all formal interaction through the mechanisms of the UN. America has a rather poor record when it comes to nation building, and as far as Israel is concerned, most regional powers would likely assert that the US government is incapable of being a neutral mediator in the situation given their longstanding relationship with the Israeli government, and that any possible diplomacy they may attempt would be fundamentally and critically tainted by their history.

    And honestly… they’d be right to make this objection. I cannot envision any scenario in which America attempts this delicate statecraft and does not compromise the effort by looking after its own interests in the process.

    It’s also a very real possibility that any attempt at lasting peace that even shows a glimmer of potential will likely be intentionally sabotaged by regional neighbors. Nearly as much as the Israeli government wants to see the entire area controlled by a Jewish government, that’s how much many of the neighboring powers want to see that government eradicated and replaced with Muslim leadership. And if they can’t accomplish that, they’ll be content to simply play spoiler, and destabilize the region as they are now.