She won’t become the next Tory leader. She’s fifth popular amongst ordinary Tory party members, behind Mourdant, Cleverly, Mercer and Badenoch and she has approval rating according to IPSOS of 16% and YouGov of 15%. I doubt she even has enough support to get 54 letters to the 1922 committee.
The Tories are down to 350 sitting MPs. This means that the 15% threshold is now 53 not 54 anymore. Loose another 4 MPs and that figure is only 52 letters required.
There has reputedly been 20 letters handed in for weeks now. That would leave 33 additional letters, if the rumours are true. Unfortunately those 20 letters will be from people who already support Braverman’s narrative. I would love to see a VONC thrown into the mix. Cameron would be over moon also I guess. It would deflect from the crap that is heading in his direction this week. Greensill is rearing its ugly head for him, and rightly so.
I’d be surprised if she did meet the threshold, but even if she does there’s not a chance she’ll get enough ordinary members to vote for her. I think she’d be wise (not her strong suit admittedly) to bide her time, wait for the Tory party to get gutted at the next GE and capitalise on the anger of party members to win then.
Having watched the Tories tragic approach to tactics over this term in government, I agree, intelligence is not a talent they possess. Whether the timing is right or not is irrelevant to the outcome. She will always have to come to the point of convincing the rank and file that she is the best choice they have.
I think Cameron is going to be a much bigger catalyst for a change in direction for the Tories than people are seeing atm. All the focus will be on Greensill and how he dragged us out of the EU. While forgetting he is now in charge of Foreign policy, and being an ardent remainer. Is this a turning point for what Sunak believes? There is one thing that is certain, polling will change direction as Tory voters will flood back under Cameron. But will they flood back before the party implodes is the question. Time to microwave some Popcorn.
She will always have to come to the point of convincing the rank and file that she is the best choice they have.
True, but if there’s a vote right now, she will lose. If she waits until after a GE she has all the time between now and then to chip away at Sunak’s Gvmt, especially after it loses the GE. There’ll be a lot of time to bottle up the party’s anger then use it in a leadership bid, time she simply doesn’t have now.
I think you’re bang on about Cameron. It’s a dangerous political move by Sunak for all the reasons you state. I don’t think there’ll be a flood back exactly but some will return. There’s still a huge amount of Johnson fans in the party and a lot may depend on what he thinks of Cameron’s return.
I think the only way we will see is if it happens. The turmoil of the Truss election showed me how easily the worst option can come through. Truss was seen by many as the most likely and the most idiotic choice before campaigning began. Braverman is in that position again, and a lot of the saner tory members have left. The voter base has inevitably swung further to the right because of it. But OFC it is postulation. Let us see how it pans out.
That was when they had a chance to elect Truss. Braverman is lining herself up to be the candidate of the right next time and, if she manages it, and the party doesn’t manage to bring about another coronation a la Sunak, she will win.
So this table is from a survey done by the Conservative home blog. They survey ‘selected activists’ about whether they approve of certain members. I can’t find any details on who these ‘selected activists’ are but as Conservative Home is quite a right wing blog I doubt it’s a balanced take. They also won’t have access to the list of Tory party members so won’t be picked from there.
Basically what we can judge from this is she’s popular with the far right, which we already knew. She’s not popular party wide.
She won’t become the next Tory leader. She’s fifth popular amongst ordinary Tory party members, behind Mourdant, Cleverly, Mercer and Badenoch and she has approval rating according to IPSOS of 16% and YouGov of 15%. I doubt she even has enough support to get 54 letters to the 1922 committee.
The Tories are down to 350 sitting MPs. This means that the 15% threshold is now 53 not 54 anymore. Loose another 4 MPs and that figure is only 52 letters required.
There has reputedly been 20 letters handed in for weeks now. That would leave 33 additional letters, if the rumours are true. Unfortunately those 20 letters will be from people who already support Braverman’s narrative. I would love to see a VONC thrown into the mix. Cameron would be over moon also I guess. It would deflect from the crap that is heading in his direction this week. Greensill is rearing its ugly head for him, and rightly so.
I’d be surprised if she did meet the threshold, but even if she does there’s not a chance she’ll get enough ordinary members to vote for her. I think she’d be wise (not her strong suit admittedly) to bide her time, wait for the Tory party to get gutted at the next GE and capitalise on the anger of party members to win then.
Having watched the Tories tragic approach to tactics over this term in government, I agree, intelligence is not a talent they possess. Whether the timing is right or not is irrelevant to the outcome. She will always have to come to the point of convincing the rank and file that she is the best choice they have.
I think Cameron is going to be a much bigger catalyst for a change in direction for the Tories than people are seeing atm. All the focus will be on Greensill and how he dragged us out of the EU. While forgetting he is now in charge of Foreign policy, and being an ardent remainer. Is this a turning point for what Sunak believes? There is one thing that is certain, polling will change direction as Tory voters will flood back under Cameron. But will they flood back before the party implodes is the question. Time to microwave some Popcorn.
True, but if there’s a vote right now, she will lose. If she waits until after a GE she has all the time between now and then to chip away at Sunak’s Gvmt, especially after it loses the GE. There’ll be a lot of time to bottle up the party’s anger then use it in a leadership bid, time she simply doesn’t have now.
I think you’re bang on about Cameron. It’s a dangerous political move by Sunak for all the reasons you state. I don’t think there’ll be a flood back exactly but some will return. There’s still a huge amount of Johnson fans in the party and a lot may depend on what he thinks of Cameron’s return.
I think the only way we will see is if it happens. The turmoil of the Truss election showed me how easily the worst option can come through. Truss was seen by many as the most likely and the most idiotic choice before campaigning began. Braverman is in that position again, and a lot of the saner tory members have left. The voter base has inevitably swung further to the right because of it. But OFC it is postulation. Let us see how it pans out.
That was when they had a chance to elect Truss. Braverman is lining herself up to be the candidate of the right next time and, if she manages it, and the party doesn’t manage to bring about another coronation a la Sunak, she will win.
No, those stats are from last month.
Ah, sorry.
5th popular of the half dozen or so that ran for leadership, much lower in the whole party.
No, those stats are from last month and are the Tory parties own research into ordinary (not just MPs) members.
So this table is from a survey done by the Conservative home blog. They survey ‘selected activists’ about whether they approve of certain members. I can’t find any details on who these ‘selected activists’ are but as Conservative Home is quite a right wing blog I doubt it’s a balanced take. They also won’t have access to the list of Tory party members so won’t be picked from there.
Basically what we can judge from this is she’s popular with the far right, which we already knew. She’s not popular party wide.