A catastrophic election defeat could lead to the parliamentary Conservative party tilting towards the populist right, Guardian analysis has indicated.
A projection of the seats the Conservatives would retain if there was a further two percentage point swing to Labour before election day, using data from Electoral Calculus, shows that about 40% of the remaining MPs would come from this wing of the party.
In less calamitous defeats – scenarios based on current polling levels, and on a situation where there is a two percentage point swing in favour of the Tories – the proportion would be nearer to 30%, roughly where it is now.
All true. But the Lib Dems are the primary beneficiaries of a Tory collapse (as the Tories were the primary beneficiaries of a Lib Dem collapse). They’re duking it out in twice as many seats as Labour/Lib Dem marginals. Too nice to be Tories, too posh to be Labour is a big voting constituency, and it expands when the Tories make themselves too toxic for a big chunk of voters to stomach.