Hey so: You gave me a detailed factual argument with citations, so I’m taking some significant time to respond to it factually. I actually really like this type of debate even if I’m obviously gonna disagree with your conclusions.
I also think it’s ridiculous that you’re accusing me of arguing unfactually. Pretty much every fact you’ve cited, I’ve agreed with (when you give citations you’ve been drawing largely on sources that are clearly based in reality), and then made the argument that there are other things that need to be added to the equation. You can agree or disagree with conclusion obviously, and it’s definitely fair for you to ask for me to add citations, but IDK how at all you got from that to that I was doing any of the bad-faith things you accuse me of towards the end of your message.
This is, again, what I was talking about before: Taking one soldier’s experience, or one single “clawback” of however-many interceptors, without putting it in context of the other 99.9% of the situation. Basically, you can construct any type of little propaganda universe, if you’re allowed to pick individual anecdotes and blow them up context-less to create the whole picture you’re trying to create.
Any quantitative measurement of how much this is going on, versus the total? Similar to what I do down below? I’d assert that this with Japan is a weird one-off thing and not America “running out of weapons” or anything, but you’re free to prove me wrong.
Russia has suffered more severe shortfalls
Citation needed
Want me to make an effort to compare and contrast supply levels on the Russian vs Western side?
I would actually.
Okay, happy to. So, it’s actually remarkably difficult to find open-source numbers on how much materiel over time Russia is supplying to its frontline troops. All I can point to is things like this or this as good examples of Russia struggling with supply levels.
But, those are anecdotes, similar to the ones of yours that I complained about before. They don’t really mean anything. If you want to get an idea of what the actual big picture is, the best way I can see to do it is just to add up the total numbers involved. The 2023 wartime Russian military budget is roughly $100 billion, significantly up from their pre-war spending.
That’s something like 10 times the domestic Ukrainian spend on their military, but obviously that’s not the whole story. Total direct military assistance to Ukraine was a little under $100 billion in the first year-and-a-half of the war, with most of that coming from the US. So, you’re correct that Russia is outspending Ukraine+allies by a certain amount.
I would also say that what you’re saying about the grim situation for the Ukrainians right now is accurate in the short term. But that’s not because the west is running out of money. The Ukrainian side of the war started going worse for them around October 2023, when $60 billion worth of aid was held up in the US congress, and they started running out of stuff, and it’s now gotten pretty bad. Some of the stories you highlight are talking about examples of that, and they’re accurate.
That single $60 billion US aid package, though, represents more than half of Russia’s total military budget even in their fully mobilized economy. The total military budget of the US alone is around $842 billion – which dwarfs Russia’s military budget by a factor similar to how much Russia’s dwarfs Ukraine’s. They’re not comparable. The US has money. Our congress is just a shit show right now, so the Ukrainians aren’t getting any, and they need it to be able to fight the war.
That’s why I say that I wouldn’t agree that Russia can simply sit back and wait and outspend the west. If you want to argue that they can outwait Ukraine’s ability to depend on aid from the west… yeah, maybe. It’s definitely possible. That’s why I say it’s not a settled question whether Ukraine will win or lose.
(1/2)
Hey so: You gave me a detailed factual argument with citations, so I’m taking some significant time to respond to it factually. I actually really like this type of debate even if I’m obviously gonna disagree with your conclusions.
I also think it’s ridiculous that you’re accusing me of arguing unfactually. Pretty much every fact you’ve cited, I’ve agreed with (when you give citations you’ve been drawing largely on sources that are clearly based in reality), and then made the argument that there are other things that need to be added to the equation. You can agree or disagree with conclusion obviously, and it’s definitely fair for you to ask for me to add citations, but IDK how at all you got from that to that I was doing any of the bad-faith things you accuse me of towards the end of your message.
This is, again, what I was talking about before: Taking one soldier’s experience, or one single “clawback” of however-many interceptors, without putting it in context of the other 99.9% of the situation. Basically, you can construct any type of little propaganda universe, if you’re allowed to pick individual anecdotes and blow them up context-less to create the whole picture you’re trying to create.
Any quantitative measurement of how much this is going on, versus the total? Similar to what I do down below? I’d assert that this with Japan is a weird one-off thing and not America “running out of weapons” or anything, but you’re free to prove me wrong.
Okay, happy to. So, it’s actually remarkably difficult to find open-source numbers on how much materiel over time Russia is supplying to its frontline troops. All I can point to is things like this or this as good examples of Russia struggling with supply levels.
But, those are anecdotes, similar to the ones of yours that I complained about before. They don’t really mean anything. If you want to get an idea of what the actual big picture is, the best way I can see to do it is just to add up the total numbers involved. The 2023 wartime Russian military budget is roughly $100 billion, significantly up from their pre-war spending.
That’s something like 10 times the domestic Ukrainian spend on their military, but obviously that’s not the whole story. Total direct military assistance to Ukraine was a little under $100 billion in the first year-and-a-half of the war, with most of that coming from the US. So, you’re correct that Russia is outspending Ukraine+allies by a certain amount.
I would also say that what you’re saying about the grim situation for the Ukrainians right now is accurate in the short term. But that’s not because the west is running out of money. The Ukrainian side of the war started going worse for them around October 2023, when $60 billion worth of aid was held up in the US congress, and they started running out of stuff, and it’s now gotten pretty bad. Some of the stories you highlight are talking about examples of that, and they’re accurate.
That single $60 billion US aid package, though, represents more than half of Russia’s total military budget even in their fully mobilized economy. The total military budget of the US alone is around $842 billion – which dwarfs Russia’s military budget by a factor similar to how much Russia’s dwarfs Ukraine’s. They’re not comparable. The US has money. Our congress is just a shit show right now, so the Ukrainians aren’t getting any, and they need it to be able to fight the war.
That’s why I say that I wouldn’t agree that Russia can simply sit back and wait and outspend the west. If you want to argue that they can outwait Ukraine’s ability to depend on aid from the west… yeah, maybe. It’s definitely possible. That’s why I say it’s not a settled question whether Ukraine will win or lose.