cross-posted from: https://linux.community/post/512445
my bet is: as long as we need to completely transition to renewable transport, because everything we eat, build and wear needs to be transported and most of us don’t work from home or study from home:
oil prices are high because that’s what putin can use as leverage against the developed world after his failed annexation of Ukraine and it’s clear he’d rather die than accept Ukraine is an independent country. Global warming makes a transition to renewable energy inescapable and even if putin died today and Russia opened the taps again, it would only slow down the transition.
But holy shit, it’s gonna be hard and expensive, it’s going to take decades and every populist politician of both left and right is going to fight it. My bet is 2 decades.
What do you think?
For inflation rates over 4%? In the US, likely no more than another year or three. There were a ton of inflationary pressures between COVID handouts, the Russian invasion of Ukraine curtailing wheat and oil exports, and Yemen attacking global shipping. The first is over already, the second is being worked around, and the third is not going to last a huge amount of time.
For Turkey, good luck to them and their hyperinflation. They managed their economy like shit.
For Germany, probably going to be longer, they were too tied to Russian gas and they were forced to sign expensive long-term contracts to secure LNG. Though, they are buying increasing amounts of nuclear power from France, which is easing their LNG requirements.
For Russia, probably as long as the sanctions last. So as long as they continue their invasion of Ukraine.
For everyone else? No clue, I’m not familiar enough with their monetary and political processes.