This bullshit about Taiwan not being a country is so ridiculous.
South Sudan (2011)
Kosovo (2008)
Montenegro (2006)
Serbia (2006)
East Timor (2002)
Palau (1994)
Eritrea (1993)
Namibia (1990)
Zimbabwe (1980)
Djibouti (1977)
Seychelles (1976)
Angola, Sao Tome and Principe, Comoros, Cabo Verde, Mozambique (1975)
Guinea-Bissau (1974)
Equatorial Guinea (1968)
Swaziland (1968) -> Eswatini (2018)
And so on
These are the countries younger than Taiwan.
Sure, in the early years they didn’t think of themselves as a country. They thought of themselves as the rightful rulers of China who were just temporarily occupying an outlying island, but they’ve been isolated on that island since 1949. That’s 74 years now. There are full generations of people who have grown up in Taiwan.
It makes perfect sense that Taiwan should formally renounce any claim to the rest of China. The business of being the “Republic of China” is ridiculous. They lost the war, they’re never going to unpause the conflict and defeat the PRC military. At the same time, China should just acknowledge that the people of Taiwan have no interest in being part of their country. Sure, 74 years ago they were on the opposite side of a civil war. But, it’s unlikely any decision-maker from that conflict is still alive today. It could be that a handful of soldiers in their teens or twenties are still alive in their 90s, but nobody that young was making any important decisions.
The US started as a breakaway colony in 1776, was at war with Great Britain until 1783, and it only took until 1785 before Great Britain and the US re-established diplomatic relations. The UK continues to have a decent amount of soft power around the world because it has maintained good relationships with all the countries that decided they didn’t want to be part of that empire.
It’s telling that Taiwan is now becoming closer to Japan than to China. Taiwan was occupied by Japan for half a century, and it was a pretty brutal occupation. That occupation only ended a little before the ROC moved there in 1949. If the PRC had just normalized relations with Taiwan decades ago, Taiwan and China would probably both be working together in opposition to Japan due to their shared history of mistreatment by Japan. Instead, China’s ridiculous insistence that a 74 year old country isn’t actually a country is just causing that country to ally with old enemies against China.
It would put to bed the idea that the PRC and ROC are still involved in a civil war that’s just on pause. If Taiwan said “The civil war’s done, you won, we only claim this island now”, China could still claim that the island is theirs and Taiwan is an occupier, but they couldn’t pretend that the civil war is still ongoing. It could also give other countries an excuse to have normal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Instead of having to choose between the ROC or the PRC as the legitimate government of China, they could say that the PRC is the legitimate government of China, but that Taiwan is a breakaway region that gained independence back in 1949, and that they recognize Taiwan as a country too… but only as the legitimate government of that one small island.
As for whether it would make an invasion more or less likely, who knows. It probably wouldn’t change anything. China has to know that if they ever invaded it would be an extremely costly invasion, and anything of value in Taiwan would likely be destroyed. Invasion would be devastating to Taiwan’s economy, and terrible if not devastating to China’s economy. The only reason to do it is political. Theoretically it could be something a weak central government could do to make the people feel patriotic and to make the government seem strong. But, that might backfire and they might look weak and people could lose faith and/or stop fearing them.
This bullshit about Taiwan not being a country is so ridiculous.
These are the countries younger than Taiwan.
Sure, in the early years they didn’t think of themselves as a country. They thought of themselves as the rightful rulers of China who were just temporarily occupying an outlying island, but they’ve been isolated on that island since 1949. That’s 74 years now. There are full generations of people who have grown up in Taiwan.
It makes perfect sense that Taiwan should formally renounce any claim to the rest of China. The business of being the “Republic of China” is ridiculous. They lost the war, they’re never going to unpause the conflict and defeat the PRC military. At the same time, China should just acknowledge that the people of Taiwan have no interest in being part of their country. Sure, 74 years ago they were on the opposite side of a civil war. But, it’s unlikely any decision-maker from that conflict is still alive today. It could be that a handful of soldiers in their teens or twenties are still alive in their 90s, but nobody that young was making any important decisions.
The US started as a breakaway colony in 1776, was at war with Great Britain until 1783, and it only took until 1785 before Great Britain and the US re-established diplomatic relations. The UK continues to have a decent amount of soft power around the world because it has maintained good relationships with all the countries that decided they didn’t want to be part of that empire.
It’s telling that Taiwan is now becoming closer to Japan than to China. Taiwan was occupied by Japan for half a century, and it was a pretty brutal occupation. That occupation only ended a little before the ROC moved there in 1949. If the PRC had just normalized relations with Taiwan decades ago, Taiwan and China would probably both be working together in opposition to Japan due to their shared history of mistreatment by Japan. Instead, China’s ridiculous insistence that a 74 year old country isn’t actually a country is just causing that country to ally with old enemies against China.
What would Taiwan gain by doing this? It’s not obvious to me whether declaring independence would make the PRC-invasion scenario more or less likely.
It would put to bed the idea that the PRC and ROC are still involved in a civil war that’s just on pause. If Taiwan said “The civil war’s done, you won, we only claim this island now”, China could still claim that the island is theirs and Taiwan is an occupier, but they couldn’t pretend that the civil war is still ongoing. It could also give other countries an excuse to have normal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Instead of having to choose between the ROC or the PRC as the legitimate government of China, they could say that the PRC is the legitimate government of China, but that Taiwan is a breakaway region that gained independence back in 1949, and that they recognize Taiwan as a country too… but only as the legitimate government of that one small island.
As for whether it would make an invasion more or less likely, who knows. It probably wouldn’t change anything. China has to know that if they ever invaded it would be an extremely costly invasion, and anything of value in Taiwan would likely be destroyed. Invasion would be devastating to Taiwan’s economy, and terrible if not devastating to China’s economy. The only reason to do it is political. Theoretically it could be something a weak central government could do to make the people feel patriotic and to make the government seem strong. But, that might backfire and they might look weak and people could lose faith and/or stop fearing them.