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Cake day: July 15th, 2023

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  • The inflation that started towards the end of the pandemic shutdowns is essentially over now in the U.S. according to the most widely used measures.

    There’s a lot of ways economists measure inflation. That chart is for all items. Policy makers usually use “core” inflation, which excludes food and energy. Food and energy prices are obviously important to individuals but they’re volatile and can add a lot of noise. (Like gas prices go up and down all the time without it meaning the Federal Reserve needs to change long term policy.)

    Another caveat is that shelter lags behind by about 6 months just because of (a) how it’s measured and (b) people sign leases once or twice a year. So, if the main reason inflation is up or down is housing, it could be misleading about actual inflation right now.

    Anything between 1% and 3% with low unemployment is fine and that’s where the U.S. is now. Other countries may not be there yet but this is nothing like the late 70’s and early 80’s.



  • That’s why we make a distinction between:

    • formal sciences (math, logic, statistics, etc.)
    • natural sciences (physics, chemistry, geology, etc.), and;
    • social sciences (econ, anthropology, archaeology, etc.)

    People in formal and social sciences don’t put “scientist” on their business card because the popular understanding of the term is a natural scientist in a lab coat doing controlled experiments. You don’t get a nice clean lab to do controlled experiments on societies, economies, or ancient ruins. When you study those things, your degree still usually says “Bachelor of Science” and not “Bachelor of Arts” because the terms “sciences” and “arts” are more expansive than the way we use them in every day conversation.


  • Economics filtered through politics and media can get silly but actual economists doing actual economics create rigorous models (like any science) and most don’t even necessarily make predictions about the future. A cross-discipline academic project on the effects of past coastal erosion might, for instance, have an ecologist, historian, and economist all write separate papers. That’s more common than pontificating on TV.

    Econ is also prone to being misrepresented by politicians because there’s almost always trade-offs in the real world. Like imagine a proposed tax on gas/petrol to fund public transportation. An economist would just predict who will benefit or be harmed but you probably already know exactly what the different political parties and media outlets in your country will focus on.


  • China has every incentive to switch since they’re an oil importer and a battery and solar panel exporter with major smog issues, especially in Beijing. Even without global warming, they’re better off electrifying as much as possible.

    Plus, we should probably all have a Plan B. How much oil is coming from countries at war, threatening war, or forced to ship their oil through tiny straights within rocket firing distance of a U.S./Iran proxy war? Even the Panama Canal (drought) is having issues.






  • Because those wars went so well. Iran has a population of almost 90 million compared to Iraq’s 2003 population of 27 million or so and Libya’s was like 6 million before that war. And those only created more instability. There’s not usually a winner in a war in the modern era.

    I’m an American and, emotionally, I obviously get the desire to retaliate for the attacks but a real war with Iran would be catastrophic. It would probably weaken America in the long run. As bad as these tit-for-tat strikes are, we’re better off supporting Iranian protesters than taking aggressive military action.